Sunday, 25 April 2010

Dear Maria Eagle...

I am somewhat bemused by the statements on your leaflet, and those of your Labour council candidates.

You appear to be telling voters in Garston and Halewood that in the General Election the Liberal Democrats are in third place.

This is odd because five years ago you stood next to me on the stage at the count when the result was read out. And unless you are suffering from severe memory loss you will remember that you won, I came second (yes me the Liberal Democrat) and the Conservatives were third. It wasn't even close for second and third was it? If you remember I got 33.5 percent of the vote and the Conservatives less than 10 percent.

Now whether or not statistics are your thing, you must surely recognise that 33 is a higher number than 10.

Of course you may argue that the boundaries of the constituency have changed. We are now Garston and Halewood not Liverpool Garston.

OK that's true and there cannot logically be a past result. But as I am sure you are aware the UK Polling organisation has calculated notional results for constituencies with boundary changes. Again this shows the Lib Dems in a clear second place. UK Polling has a website and I am sure it will take a matter of minutes for you to verify this if you haven't already.

Of course you may take the view that you are providing a public service in informing people about national opinion and that is why you have chosen to use figures from the whole of the UK rather than Garston. It's a weak argument but let's for the moment persist with it. Surely when we use statistics we use the most up to date ones we can find. And since 2005 we have been innundated with opinion polls the average of the recent of which currently show your party in third place. No doubt your desire for accuracy will persuade you to mention these in future!

See you at the count!


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